Michael Jackson is really the only one who can take on Halloween weekend and win. The annual holiday is known for being a box office killer, especially when it falls on a Saturday night, so it’s no wonder Sony Pictures slotted This is It for a Wednesday bow. No other major release was scheduled for the weekend, so uber-fans will come out early and perhaps often considering Jackson’s favorite holiday, big shocker, was All Hallow’s Eve. The studio has been working overtime to tamp down expectations for the concert film they spent $60 million for the right to release. Wednesday’s gross of $20 million worldwide ($7.4 domestically, $12.7 internationally) proves that this film will be a worldwide phenomenon with its international receipts far out-grossing what it makes in the U.S. If Jackson isn’t your bag, this weekend there will be more horror on display with Paranormal Activity continuing its impressive run while Saw VI tries to eek out a profit after getting slayed last weekend in theaters. Read on for predictions.
1. This is It: $21 million
Even non-Michael Jackson fans are coming back from this film exuberant over what director Kenny Ortega has done with the 120 hours of rehearsal footage of Jackson’s final days. So now it’s up to the fans to show up in theaters and make this film a success. There’s no doubt that Sony will recoup its investment on This is It but what the movie becomes is a complete wild card. I think the film will get close to $35 million for its first five days domestically. But again there’s Halloween and two World Series games competing for attention.
2. Paranormal Activity: $13 million
This low-budget wonder has already grossed $65 million, becoming the most profitable movie of all time. What Paranormal Activity does from now on really doesn’t matter. A sequel is underway, stars Micah Sloat and Katie Featherston have already received the huge jump start on their career, and director Oren Peli is already making his second movie. Paranormal has out-Blair-Witched Blair Witch. Reaching $100 million shouldn’t be bad for this $11,000 film.
3. Law Abiding Citizen: $7 million
Gerard Butler and Jamie Foxx have already pulled in $42 million for this film. Another 40% drop is likely this weekend, giving this inexpensive actioner a solid $50 million gross.
4. Where the Wild Things Are: $6 million
Spike Jonze’s meditation on childhood has made $55 million, not enough for this expensive film. Parents seem to be leaving their children at home, which isn’t a bad thing but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t see it themselves. It’s worth the two hours of their time.
5. Couples Retreat: $6 million
It doesn’t matter that critics hate this film. The Vince Vaughn-starrer has already grossed $79 million and comes as a well-needed hit for the struggling Universal Pictures. Last weekend it fell only 38%, proving that audiences want a good comedy right now. This weekend expect another 40% drop off, which would put the movie in striking distance of $100 million.
Photo Credit: Kevin Mazur
Comments (1-15) of 18 Add your comment
Joe Jackson on his son Michael: “He’s worth more dead than he was alive.” Don’t he know it.
I don’t think that Paranormal Activity is the most proficable movie of all time. Blair Witch cost $60,000 and made 140 million domestically so that movie itself is more profitable then PA.
Just depends how you look at it. If measured in $, BW wins, but if measured in % return, then PA wins.
Obviously the person writing this story is referring to Box Office to Budget Ratio. And it is impressive. But there is a reason studios invest so much money on summer blockbusters. The Dark Knight may have only made (1 billion worldwide) five times what is cost (200 million) but the difference is 800 million. PA will make around 100 million domestically compared to almost no cost. That difference is 100 million for Paramount. So calling PA the most profitable film of all time is misleading.
I’m not surprised that MJ’s movie will do better worldwide than it will in the US. It is a nice thing for his fans, but the rest of us are so saturated with MJ news that we can’t imagine spending more time sitting in a theater to watch him.
i think saw 6 could still end up in the top five this weekend with halloween and all…
Thats sad that pop star Michael Jackson isnt Alive anymore thanks to Dr murray.Hes sick in the Head.June 25th 2009.Dr murray should be proscuted for what he did that day.Thats why.pop star Michael Jackson was pronounced dead.June 25th 2009.His Heart stopped pumpimg because of the overdose by Dr murray.Sick in the Head.Katherine Jackson lost her son Michael thanks to Dr murray.Paris/her two brothers lost their father.Janet/Latoya lost their Brother.Dr murray should be in prison without parole.Make him pay what he did.June 25th 2009.
Thank you Samantha for that coherent paragraph.
Immortal Beloved.
We will never forget you.
Just because a film cost $11,000 and makes 65 million does not make it the “most profitable movie of all time.” You fail at semantics and mathematics!
Profit is regularly measured as return on investment. $65M/$11K is about a 600,000% return. Name 1 movie that has beat that. Obviously by other profit measures (i.e. $65M – $11K profit), it is not the most profitable of all time.
I saw the movie last night, and surprisingly it was good! I almost started claping my hands at the end of the first song!
This Is It was awesome and a true testiment to his talent. I will own this when it comes to DVD. He truly was a remarkable artist and I will miss his talent. We have lost a true icon.
perfect timing from the Jackson wealth machine, seeing Michael Jackson on Halloween seems really appropriate, trick or treat indeed!
I also think that Saw VI will profit from Halloween weekend. Probably around #4 with 6-7 million.
Paranormal is nowhere near Blair Witch
in terms of the shear number of tickets sold at this point in it’s run. Where does EW hire these morons.
I hope it does win this weekend. This coming out now just makes me think about seeing Thriller and how that was and still is like the biggest halloween song ever!(IMO) I am going on Halloween to see the movie with that thought in mind as I am sure others will too. And its Micheal Jackson!!! The good reviews are hurting it either.
The Thriller mini movie from This Is It was UH-MAZING(amazing)