For the last six years a new installment of Saw has been as reliable a predictor of the changing seasons as the sudden ubiquitous Spirit Halloween stores that seem to pop up in every abandoned store front across the country. Every year, the movie opens in first place to figures north of $30 million. This year that could all change, as the on-demand horror phenomenon Paranormal Activity might usurp some of Saw’s momentum. While it’s unlikely the low-budget upstart will win the weekend, it’s very possible it could push Saw’s gross down into the $20 million range. Because really, are there enough horror fans out there to sustain two scarefests? For those not looking to be frightened, Universal Pictures is putting out the boy vampire movie The Vampire’s Assistant while Summit Entertainment counter-programs with its animated romp Astro Boy. With so much new product in theaters, it will be a challenge for last weekend’s strong openers Where the Wild Things Are and Law Abiding Citizen to maintain much of its audience. Read on for my predictions.
1. Saw VI: $28 million
The last two installments of Saw have opened to less coin than the third one, which scored a record opening for the series back in 2006 with $33 million. Sure Jigsaw is still averaging an impressive $28.6 million opening, which is about where this sixth one should open, but let’s be clear, Saw isn’t exactly generating interest from new fans who have discovered the father of all torture porn movies. Besides, with a shiny new thing like Paranormal Activity to distract moviegoers, Saw may be looking a little more dusty than Lionsgate intended it to be. The studio is already counting on a Saw VII next year in 3-D.
2. Paranormal Activity: $25 million
This uber-cheap horror flick earned an astonishing $25,000 per theater last weekend on its 760 locations. That gave the film a gross of $33 million. Now Paramount will expand the movie even wider, to 1950 theaters. While $25 million may seem like a lofty guess, this is the perfect film to see one weekend before Halloween. Like it or hate it, it’s what everyone’s talking about.
3. Where the Wild Things Are: $16 million
Wild Things opened strong last weekend, nabbing the top spot with $32 million. Most parents left their kids at home to see Spike Jonze’s adaptation of Maurice Sendak’s beloved children’s book. Will they bring them this weekend? Probably not often enough to keep the film from falling at least 50%. And with Astro Boy flooding theaters this frame, Wild Things could also suffer from a shiny new toy that’s more obviously directed towards children.
4. Astro Boy: $12 million
Astro Boy features a voice cast of Freddie Highmore, Kristen Bell and Nicolas Cage and is the first film adaptation of the Japanese anime series from the 1960s. Yet, it’s not a Pixar film nor even a Dreamworks Animation spectacle. And it seems today that unless you are one of those two, or Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, you don’t have much chance of succeeding at the box office. Still, the movie comes at an opportune moment for kids. If your child isn’t too slammed with Halloween festivities, here’s one place you could take him.
5. Cirque Du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant: $11 million
This film had so much potential. Finally a vampire movie for teen boys directed ironically by New Moon director Chris Weitz’s older brother Paul Weitz. It features an inspired cast of John C. Reilly, Willem Dafoe and Salma Hayek as a bearded lady. Yet, the reviews have been scathing and the PG-13 rating makes it too scary for 8-year olds and yet not very interesting to teenagers. In fact, it will be quite a feat if it crosses the $10 million mark.
Also opening: Hilary Swank in Amelia by Mira Nair in 800 theaters; Disney re-issues Tim Burton’s A Nightmare Before Christmas on 58 screens in 3-D; Chris Rock’s documentary Good Hair expands to 458 screens.
Photo Credit: Steve Wilkie
Comments (1-15) of 43 Add your comment
I’m not surprised Saw 3 had the best opening, because after that film, that’s when the series’ writing went WAY downhill (and when the the ‘torture porn’ backlash started). There are still enough people that watch the series, but I lost interest after the third sequel. The series was novel with the first few movies, but not anymore.
I can see Paranormal Activity doing well, especially with the additional screens. It’s the independent horror movie vs. the tried-and-true money maker. Ironically enough, the last time that happened was in 2004, back when the first Saw was released against the umpteenth Asian horror remake (i.e., The Grudge). It’ll be interesting to see what happens.
I’m with you t3hdow, after six movies in six years the Saw series looks as dull as Friday the 13th: Jason Takes Manhattan must have looked 20 years ago. Paranormal Activity is like the anti-Saw . . . a fresh idea that apparently manages to terrify without any actual violence (haven’t seen it yet, but want to.)
The Grudge beat the first Saw, it made like 40 mil or something. I remember ew writing an article about The Grudge being the biggest opener for a female lead movie or something.
I say reverse the two. I absolutely loved Saw 1 and 2 and that’s it. Who can see 6 of these movies??
me…..they are higly entertaining and teaches you to cheerish life…..
I’m sick of people saying WTWTA is not for kids, IT IS! I’ve seen it 3x and each time the theaters have been packed with parents and their kids and the kids had a jolly good time. Stop treating kids like dumb little things that can’t “get” movies.
Kids do “get” this movie and they don’t like it. I guess they are not old enough to know they are supposed to like it like good little hipsters
I resent Saw for hogging this weekend the past 6 years. I’m glad there is something ready to give it a run for its money this year. It’s like the X Factor winner getting the Christmas Number 1 every year in the UK. There’s no suspense.
Didn’t High School Musical 3 win during this weekend last year?
It’s definitely going to be a battle for #1. I think Saw will win since enough horror fans like to see some gore in their movies. I am kind of rooting for Paranormal Activity since it looks to be it’s last chance at a #1; during this weekend, Paranormal Activity’s per screen average will probably crumble meaning that after this weekend, it probably will start to have the same 50%-plus dives that Blair Witch did.
I hope Paranormal Activity does beat Saw 6. I’m tired of those movies. Just because its halloween doesn’t always mean it must be saw.
yes…yes it does
I’d love to see Paranormal beat Saw, just because it’s a good movie and the Saws are not.
I also hope Paranormal crushes Saw. I also think that it does stand to beat it to #1.
I knew it would come through and it did….saw VI was absolutley PHENOMINAL…..anyone that doesn’t appreciate the writing of these movies is nieve and ignorant……this one just proves how brilliant the makers are….by far the best of the series besides the first
Your moron if you think these movies are brilliant. The screenwriters for Saw have changed throughout the series and the stories have become contrived and exaggerated. AND NOW it’s revealed the person who formally EDIT the movies is now the director!!!!! Any movie that gets to these numbers in sequels is blatantly doing so because idiots like yourself continue to pay money for mindless torture scenes! I was a fan of the 1st two movies, but this is gettin ridiculous
I agree the series has been drawn out, this one should have been the last because it tied everything together. Obviously there doing it for the money ass hole, I’m well aware of that. All im saying is at least they actually made a decent film after last years atrocity.
finally somebody that understand the quality in the SAW franchise
Major factual error in this article. “Saw V” did not open at number 1. It was runner-up to “High School Musical 3.”
28 days to NEW MOON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!=DD
Then I guess we all know what will be the cover story for the next 4 EWs.
Only 4? I would say like next 6 covers, not including the last 10 ones we have already had to endure through the last year. Ugh.
I’m not a Saw fan (after Saw III they began to suck), but I’d rather see Saw VI than New Moon. I’d rather be a CHARACTER in Saw VI than see New Moon.
155 days til “The Last Song”
I saw Paranormal Activity last night. It was just like Blair Witch- not worth the hype. Last 20 minutes were the only really interesting parts. I do not believe even for a second that people were really leaving the theaters or puking from how scared they were. Saw atleast keeps you guessing.
You’re right about one thing. Saw does keep you guessing. Guessing why people still watch those movies. Pretty much since the 3rd one they are the same movie over and over and over with different actors.
Anyone who prefers Saw 6 over Paranormal Activity seriously needs to have their head examined. Wake up people; the first Saw sucked. On the other hand, Paranormal Activity is the best horror film to come out in years and deserves to be #1 at the box office this Halloween.
Long Live Jigsaw!!! May he never die. I hope this one has blood –
lotsaofit!
Yeah long Live To The SAW SEries
hsm3 might’ve beaten it last year, but saw’s 30 million opening weekend earned triple its budget, so as long as that keeps happening, lionsgate will, like clockwork, keep putting out more and more of these. and like everyone else, 1 and 2 were good, but ive had enough already. yes, only the last twenty minutes or so of paranormal activity were really scary, but nowhere in the first five saw films was i as terrified.
I just hate that Saw VI has been rated X in Spain. It’s so absurd an unprecedented. Spain rating a movie worse than the USA! Weird…
Now people will have to go to a porn movie theatre to watch a horror film.
They should rectify, or show a different cut, or they’ll lose a lot of money.
Also, this means that a lot more people than usual will doenload or buy a copy of the movie illegally.
Myself included, as all my friends and everybody I’ve talked to.