Horror comedies have been a mixed bag at the box office. You have the good: Ghostbusters and the Scary Movie franchise. You have the bad: Snakes on a Plane and Eight-Legged Freaks. And then you have the ugly: Jennifer’s Body and Club Dread. In the case of this weekend, Zombieland seems destined to join the good. The film — starring Woody Harrelson, Jesse Eisenberg, Emma Stone and Abigail Breslin as the last four humans stuck on a zombie-invested planet — has been generating incredible buzz and is sure to win the weekend. How high it goes will depend on how many over-17-year-old fans show up. My prediction is that Zombieland will outperform the studio predictions that are hovering in the low-20 million range. It should be a big weekend at the box office regardless, as Zombieland is one of three new releases (four actually if you count Disney’s double-feature 3-D re-release of Toy Story and Toy Story 2) along with Ellen Page-starrer Whip It! and Ricky Gervais’ The Invention of Lying.
Zombieland: $30 million
First-time director Ruben Fleischer, along with young screenwriters Rhett Reese and Paul Wernick, are eyeing a great weekend for their debut theatrical effort. While recent horror entries Sorority Row and Jennifer’s Body haven’t connected at the box office, Zombieland is on track to reverse that trend. And with Zombieland being Woody Harrelson’s first of three films to bow this year, get ready to see a lot more of the former Cheers bartender. Between Zombieland, Roland Emmerich’s 2012, and the indie flick The Messenger, the hemp-loving peace activist is bound to be responsible for a solid chunk of 2009’s box-office receipts.
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs: $15 million
Sony Pictures is on a roll. Not only will they win the weekend with Zombieland, but they should have the number two spot as well with their hit animated flick Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs. Coming off an astonishing second weekend drop of only 17%, the film has already grossed close to $65 million. This frame the Toy Story double feature is sure to rain on its parade. Still, word of mouth is strong on Cloudy so I predict the drop to not fall beneath the 40% range.
Toy Story 3-D: $11 million
This is Disney Studios’ idea of an experiment. Release two beloved films for the price of one, in 3-D, eight months before the next installment comes out. Only screen it for two weeks and see if you can generate some solid revenue. It’s likely to work well, but because the package is bowing only in 3-D on 1745 screens and it’s over 3 hours of movie time, both films will be shown on average only three times a day. That automatically limits the grosses. Tracking on the Woody and Buzz reunion is strong, so it could get into the low single-digits but we’ll have to wait and see how it pans out.
Whip It!: $9 million
Drew Barrymore’s directorial debut Whip It! starring Juno’s Ellen Page has teenage girl power written all over it. With its fun and frothy cast including Jimmy Fallon and Kristen Wiig, the roller-derby comedy should score with the under-17 female set. How that translates into box-office dollars remains to be seen. The film’s not opening super wide: it will be on 2100 screens. But the studio is confident of its playability since they sneaked it on some 500 screens last weekend. If it catches fire with the young girls, it could turn into a hit.
The Invention of Lying: $8 million
Ricky Gervais’ last film Ghost Town generated 87% positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and only opened to $5 million. This time Gervais is lacking a bit in the review department but he seems to be generating more marketing support from the studio. Still, tracking isn’t taking this movie much beyond the single digits. It seems Gervais, while being a huge hit at any awards show, hasn’t yet caught fire as a box-office draw.
Other new releases:
The Coen Brothers’ A Serious Man on six screens, Lebron James’ documentary More Than a Game on 14 screens and the expansion of the Michael Moore documentary Capitalism: A Love Story to 1000 locations.
Photo Credit: Glen Wilson
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Way too high for Zombieland closer to 20 mill and JBody was not last weekend, Miss box office expert
Huh? Unless Nicole edited the article, where did she say Jennifer’s Body was released last weekend? She only said Jennifer’s Body and Sorority Row were recently released films. That doesn’t automatically imply that it was released last week.
I really hope Zombieland does well.It reminds me of Shaun of the Dead,and that movie kicks ass.
The because it rips off Shaun of the dead you dope.
It rips off Shaun? Why? Because they’re both zombie movies?
I hardly thinks it rips off Shaun of the Dead. Why – because they are both zombie-comedy movies? That is hardly justification to say its a rip off.
I agree with the others. Why would you say it rips it off? Just because they are both zombie movies.
Yeah because “shaun of the dead,” was the first funny zombie movie. Honestly I liked both films. Zombieland was as good as everyone is saying, it’s fresh, the dialogue is fun and the movie doesn’t take itself too seriously. Best part of all no bs ending where the killer wins through some bs loophole ala the grudge, ala final destination, ala saw, ala every stupid japanesse remake flick in the last 5 years.
I think these predictions are going to be way off.
I agree with Ryan. I’m thinking Toy Story surprises here, in a big way.
I’m 44 and planning to see Whip It. The previews are great. really don’t care about another zombie flick. no one’s gonna see Invention…it looks awful no matter how hard critics push it.
Really? 30 million for Zombieland? For the sake of society I hope you are way off. Looks atrociously bad but the competition is really weak. Whatever the final number is there will be a tremendous dropoff next weekend.
For the sake of society I hope not everyone is as obtuse as you. I think Zombieland looks pretty damn good, and it looks like the majority of people who have seen it feel the same way. And don’t be so sure about the huge drop off either. Genre movies that can break out of their core audience can usually sustain some momentum. All that said, $30 mil is too generous. Look for $20-25 mil for the weekend.
Well, of course Zombieland will do well, it’s been hyped up by the internet and media.
As for Gervais…well, he’s not a movie star. He’s fun for some TV shows and funny lines at award shows, but the man just can’t carry a movie. He needs to try for smaller roles in ensemble movies.
Just saw Zombieland at a sneak peek. It is HILARIOUS. Don’t think it will do $30 mill (unfortunately), but I hope it does.
How can Woody account for a solid chunk of 2009’s box office receipts if 2012 doesn’t come out until NEXT year?
Dylan- 2012 opens on November 13.
ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR MIND?!?!?!!?!? CLUB DREAD IS A MASTERPIECE!!!!
I saw Zombilenad today, it’s greatness as what it tries to be. It’s no Oscar nominee, buts just good old fun to watch movie.
My only complaint would be that the movie is just too damn short (80 minutes).
m.- you just broke my heart by saying Zombieland is only 80 minutes
I think EW seriously left out Surrogates. It actually beat Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs on Wednesday. That Doesn’t mean it is going to get #2, but it will do good.