By now, every box-office prognosticator knows not to underestimate director-writer-producer-actor Tyler Perry, whose rapid two-movies-per-year pace likely keeps director Terrence Malick up at night. Perry’s latest project, the dramedy I Can Do Bad All By Myself starring Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), should have no trouble debuting in first place against three other new releases: The umpteenth college slasher Sorority Row, the Antarctica-set thriller Whiteout, and the post-apocalyptic animated adventure 9. Here’s how I think the crowded weekend will play out.
1. Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself — $28 million
Perry’s biggest hit, Madea Goes to Jail, premiered earlier this year to the tune of $41 million. The director’s movies see a spike in their grosses whenever the name of Perry’s iconic bespectacled granny, Madea, is featured in their titles. While I Can Do Bad All By Myself lacks that distinction, Lionsgate isn’t hiding the fact that Madea has a significant supporting role. So expect I Can Do Bad to split the difference between Madea Goes to Jail and Perry’s The Family That Preys, which earned $17.4 million during the same September frame a year ago.
2. Sorority Row — $17 million
One day in the future, teenagers will grow weary of youth-oriented horror flicks. That day isn’t today. The R-rated Sorority Row should fall a bit short of the numbers posted by The Final Destination (perhaps a few adolescents will remember that they already saw a horror movie just two weeks ago), but it’ll easily trump the weekend’s other new R-rated thriller…
3. Whiteout — $8.5 million
Starring Kate Beckinsale and directed by Dominic Sena (Swordfish, Gone in Sixty Seconds), Whiteout depicts a U.S. marshal’s quest to solve a murder mystery in Antarctica before the arrival of the continent’s sunless winter. Initial reviews are chilly, and the film’s advertising campaign has been strangely absent — I’ve yet to have seen one TV ad for the movie (although I could be watching the wrong channels). Beckinsale’s Underworld fans should help push the pic to a decent, if unremarkable, opening.
4. 9 — $8 million
The PG-13 animated film, which was produced by filmmakers Tim Burton and Timur Bekmambetov (Wanted), tallied $3.1 million when it arrived in theaters on Wednesday. That amount probably represented all of the moviegoers who were truly psyched to see this post-apocalyptic tale about a gang of “stitchpunk” dolls struggling to survive in a world overtaken by vicious robots. Many parents will deem 9 too dark and frightening for children, while Burton fans and sci-fi buffs will seek it out despite the mediocre reviews. The film’s relatively low theater count (1,661 screens) also limits its potential.
5. Inglourious Basterds – $7 million
Stellar word-of-mouth has prevented Quentin Tarantino’s WWII epic from ever sliding more than 50 percent during its run. For the movie’s fourth weekend, anticipate a drop of around 40 percent for a weekend grab of $7 million, which would propel Basterds‘ cumulative gross to an impressive $105 million.
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I seen nothing but Whiteout commercials on TV for the last month.
I’ve seen plenty of TV ads for Whiteout during the past 2 weeks.
same, but not before that at all.
I can’t recall seeing any Whiteout commercials on TV either. I’ve seen the preview in a few theatres though. I thought the movie wasn’t coming out until sometime next month.
SKIP WHITEOUT! 9 was good.
Reviews of both via my Twitter: Entertainment2u
Sincerely doubt Terrence Malick is kept up at night wondering about what movies Madea is directing. Quality over quantity.
I have seen lots of Whiteout ads recently. But I wouldn’t have guessed the murder mystery plot from what I saw.
I’m going to go with 9 over Whiteout. Parents will take their kids first, then complain about how dark it is afterwards. Bad reviews didn’t stop them from seeing G-Force either.
I haven’t seen any ads for the Tyler Perry movie at all. But I know he always opens no. 1 anyway. (He’s as guaranteed as Michael bay in the summer time) But don’t be surprised if Sorority Row scares up a win.
I can;t wait for Jennifer’s Body next week
As many are saying here, I’ve seen more advertising for Whiteout than I Can Do Bad. The Madea factor helps, but the absence of advertising is going to make Sorority Row the leader.
Tyler Perry makes me very sad. Or rather, his success makes me depressed about the state of the box-office.
Everyone is entitled to his/her opinion, and some feel T.P.’s movies are becoming cookie cutter/damsel in distress, but it usually tries to insert some type of message. The really scary thing is that the true state of today’s box office, world, people in general is the lack of substance and the over gratuituos use and fascination with low and base things. As a society, our state is truly scary though checking your brain at the door for empty entertainment could be okay here and there; we are fixated though. Zombie-like
Regardless of what you think about Tyler Perry (I think his playrights are okay, but his films feel derivative and silly), he’s making lots of money in the box office because he serves an often ignored demographic in Hollywood: African American females/Christians, or simply blacks in general. Whether that should guarantee a box office win release after release is up to you, but since no one else is stepping up for the task, you can’t complain.
Besides, it’s hypocritical to say TP’s success encompasses how poor the box office is when time and time again, the most predictable trash wins out the top spot. G-Force? The Final Destination? GI Joe? I rest my case.
Preach!
I’m a fan of Indy films, but sometimes, you just need a TP movie in your life. And as a African-American woman, I have to admit it’s nice to see people on screen who remind me of some of my family, the ladies I grew up around, etc.
Perfect title, Tyler Perry’s been doing bad his entire career.
He’s making money.Are you?
Wow, Josh, I usually don’t line up with the EW predictions, but this week, my predictions ( http://blog.theboxofficejunkie.com/2009/09/weekend-preview-tyler-perry-can-do-good.html ) line up with yours pretty well! All except for 9, which I have making $11 million.
**John! Sorry for the typo!
I can’t believe none of the reviews of WHITEOUT refer to the tacky tacky tacky television trailer for the film — it shows a plane crashing and the next words are that the movie comes out on september 11. I get it that we change how we live, then the terrorists won argument. But a lot of people will be scarred by 9/11 for the rest of their lives including most everyone who was in Manhattan and Washington DC that day, not to mention the survivors of the victims. Did this movie HAVE to come out on 9/11
I’M REALLY LOOKING FORWARD TO SEE I CAN DO BAD ALL BY MYSELF. TYLER PERRY’S HILARIOUS AS MADEA. I WOULD MUCH RATHER SEE THAT THAN THOSE B MOVIE BIMBOS FROM SORORITY ROW
Haters are mad cause they are poor and live in a trailer park. Leave the library and go back to your domicile.