It’s been four months since Wolverine sliced open the summer, and eleven weeks since Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen began its rise toward the $400 million mark. Now, the fall movie season is upon us, and you can expect the box office — like the weather — to cool off as studios roll out their second-string pics in the downtime before the awards race.
Last year’s Labor Day weekend saw newcomers Babylon A.D., Traitor, and Disaster Movie get soundly beaten by holdover Tropic Thunder. This time around, we’ve got a similar crop of likely underachievers: The week’s widest release, Gamer isn’t even screening for critics, while All About Steve is getting soundly drubbed. On top of that, word-of-mouth champs Inglourious Basterds and District 9 will put up a strong fight for slots in the top five. Here’s how it might play out over the four-day Friday-to-Monday weekend:
1. Gamer — $15 million
Gerard Butler hasn’t starred in a straight-faced action movie since 2007’s 300. But don’t expect this futuristic battle pic to get anywhere near that blockbuster’s $70.9 million bow. Instead, look for it to ride the genre’s appeal to a $15 million haul—pocket change compared to recent weekend winners, but probably enough to take the top spot in a playing field like this.
2. The Final Destination — $14 million
Horror pics typically bleed out in their first weekend, and this one won’t get any help from word-of-mouth (the movie averaged a C grade from viewers polled by Cinemascore). But 3-D thrills should still entice enough moviegoers to put it in the silver-medal spot.
3. All About Steve — $12 million
While this quirky romcom has dismal buzz (it was originally slated for a March release), it does boast two stars fresh off of huge summer hits—Bradley Cooper broke through in The Hangover, while Sandra Bullock scored a career best with The Proposal. Combined with a lack of competition for female moviegoers, that should be enough to get Steve into the top three.
4. Inglourious Basterds — $11 million
Good word-of-mouth helped Quentin Tarantino’s WWII pic hold its own last weekend against the horror duo of The Final Destination and Halloween II. Look for it to have another soft decline this time around, pushing its cume past $90 million.
5. Extract — $7 million
Mike Judge’s dark comedy will have to fight middling reviews (like this one from EW’s Owen Gleiberman) and a less-than-confident release plan that puts the pic in just 1,600 theaters this week. Against those odds, it would be a pleasant surprise if the movie makes anything over $10 million.
Also opening in limited release:
Carriers – This apocalyptic horror pic probably only got a theatrical release thanks to star Chris Pine’s little trek through the stars earlier this summer. Look for it to tank in a token 100-theater release.
Be sure to check back this weekend to read our full box office report!
Comments (1-12) of 12 Add your comment
You need to make a correction to your article.
ALL ABOUT STEVE is screening for critics.
It says all about steve is screening for crtics but it is getting soundly drubbed.
Dunno if it will shoot to the top, despite billboards/ads that have been out for weeks, and Gerard Butler doing recent press. I hope it does well – I like all the actors involved, notably Butler and Hall, who are popular.
I don’t think Gamer has a shot at #1. All About Steve will probably take it, despite looking absolutely abysmal.
how attention-grabbing. I would like to see more of your posts!
Gamer #1? You’re delusional – I’ve never even heard of this film. Final Destination will be#1 followed by Inglorious Basterds. All About Steve won’t be in the top 5.
Amy
Thu 09/03/09 5:06 PM
You need to make a correction to your article.
ALL ABOUT STEVE is screening for critics.
It clearly says gamer wasnt screened
Butlerr looks like someone’s drunk plumber. Grow back the beard and hide your face. Vive la Quebec!!!!!!!!!!!!
actually that pic makes me think of Arnold Schwarzenegger at the club scene from the original Terminator.
Talk about a lack of quality. Gamer doesn’t look good enough to open number 1, yet Final Destination is too horrible to repeat at the top spot. All About Steve I haven’t even heard of, or seen any ads at all. Is it possible Basterds or D9 can jump back to the top?
1. Gamer – 20 Million
2. The Final Destination – 11 Million
3. Halloween 2 – 7 million
4. Inglorious Basterds – 7 million
5. Extract – 6 million
All About Steve looks stupid, even though I do like Bradley Cooper and Sandra Bullock…this film will do worse than Glitter with Mariah Carey
I think Gamer will get number 1, Halloween will gain a spot, Final will slip to 5 and Extract has the fourth spot and the sixth to IB and All About Steve at 8