Jun 26 2009 02:29 AM ET

Box Office Preview: 'Transformers 2' will be huge this weekend...but just how big?

Categories: Box Office

Transformers-2_l Michael Bay’s over-the-top robot extravaganza sequel, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, has already grossed $60.6 million on its opening day, so we know that the fanboys have turned out in force. In fact, the movie is destined to cross the $100 million mark before it even reaches the weekend. But how the film fares over the five-day, Wednesday-through-Sunday period is going to be determined by its core fans’ repeat business, the impact of their word of mouth, and how broad the film plays (which, if you take my 3-year-old son’s rabid interest in the giant robots, is incredibly wide). One thing is for sure: Fused metal will be the star of the multiplex this weekend, and it’s bound to take theaters by storm. The following predictions are for the usual three-day frame, by the way.

1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen — $72.5 million
Two years ago, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix opened on a Wednesday, and by the end of the weekend it had grossed $139.7 million. Transformers 2 is guaranteed to blow by that record…and go way beyond. It’s not likely to get to the $203 million that The Dark Knight scored in its first five days of release, but Michael Bay’s movie is going to work damn hard trying. The movie is opening in more than 4,000 theaters, including 169 IMAX screens, and will prove a big win for distributor Paramount, which will now be able to claim two of the summer’s biggest hits: Transformers 2 and Star Trek.

2. The Proposal — $20 million
By Friday, Sandra Bullock’s romantic comedy will have grossed $50 million in one week. Not bad for an actress who had all but abandoned the genre! Word of mouth has been solid on the movie, and expectations are high that the film, featuring a star-making performance by Ryan Reynolds, will hold on well during its sophomore session.

3. The Hangover — $16 million
Warner Bros.’ R-rated Vegas comedy isn’t going away anytime soon. And its unbelievable hold last weekend is really impressive. It is inevitable, however, that the movie, which has already grossed $163 million, will get hit this frame with Transformers 2 steamrolling into theaters.

4. Up — $14 million
Pixar’s latest animated hit has already surpassed WALL-E’s grosses, and its sights are now set on surpassing Cars‘ $244 million cume. Transformers 2 will take out some of Pixar’s audience, but with Ice Age 3 coming into theaters next weekend, this is really its last chance to stay in the Top 5.

5. My Sister’s Keeper — $12 million
This three-hanky Cameron Diaz weepfest has generated some solid reviews, especially for the lead actress herself. So it will be very interesting to see how the film fares as the main counter-programming option for the weekend. With all the light and fluffy fare dominating the box office, it’s likely that My Sister’s Keeper’s serious themes of a family dealing with a sick child may be too tough for the public to embrace. Some predictors have it in the single digits. I’m hopeful that the combination of star power and fan interest in the Jodi Picoult bestseller on which the movie is based will propel it into double-digit territory.

More Box Office News:
‘Transformers 2′ racks up record $16 million in Wednesday midnight shows
‘Transformers 2′ grosses record $60.6 mil at the box office on Wednesday
‘The Proposal’ celebrates with $34.1 mil
‘Hangover’ hangs on to the box office lead with $33.4 million
Final numbers give ‘The Hangover’ No. 1 spot over ‘Up’

Comments (1-30) of 46 Add your comment

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  • Bustray

    Spot on for Transformers.

  • Kyle

    The Proposal is going to drop big time so I think 5th

  • Jim

    This movie is terrible. And I like popcorn flicks.

  • Costas

    A great movie i loved it but everyone has there taste in movies.
    it was everything i had hoped for bring on pt 3

  • Twist

    Too long with a wimpy final death scene.

  • graeme

    Why would “The Proposal” drop big-time, Kyle? It’s a crowd pleaser, and Sandra’s films ALWAYS hold up extremely well.

  • defi

    Watching Megan Fox fixing cars is worth it: http://www.actressscene.com/2009/06/megan-fox-in-transformers.html.

  • celia

    Whatever…I still don’t want to see it. Im waiting around for Public Enemies and Half Blood Prince. :P

  • Nate

    Yes Tranformers will be huge but since it’s trash it won’t have much in the way of legs on the weeks to come.
    http://theninthdragonking.wordpress.com/2009/06/26/quality-assesstment-transformerstransformers-revenge-of-the-fallen/

  • Tadz

    Ok, everyone sooking about transformers shut the hell up, it had a logical storyline, and it did its purpose, keep transformers in teh game for future generations. Plus i give it a 5/5 best movie i have ever seen.

  • A

    “logical storyline” LOL, the transformers cartoon had more of a storyline than this.

  • stefanie

    we saw it wednesday nite and to be perfectly honest it sucked. there was noreal story line it was almost the entire movie of robots fighting. they were all so similar that you couldnt tell them apart when the were all fighting together. it kinda looked like a bowl that someone threw a bunch of colorful nuts and bolts into.

  • Jeff W.

    stefanie, You write, “to be perfectly honest it sucked…it was almost the entire movie of robots fighting”. Please help me understand what’s wrong with that? Girls should stay away from boy movies.

  • tadz

    The story line made sence, think really hard about it.

  • tadz

    It makes sence, think about it really hard.

  • KOZ

    1)Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
    2)The Proposal
    3)My Sister’s Keeper
    4)The Hangover
    5)Up

  • Candice

    Jeff F, I resent that as a woman. I love the Transformer’s and plan on seeing it on Sunday, wearing my Transformer’s shirt.

  • Heather

    So, Jeff W.,
    What makes it a boy movie? Because a bunch of mindless robots are beating each other up.

  • To Heather

    Yes.

  • Rob Tyson

    Jeff W… please step away from the keyboard and return to your cave. I am hoping that My Sister’s Keeper is solid this weekend. Twelve to fifteen mil would be great!

  • Confused

    stefanie
    “it was almost the entire movie of robots fighting”
    I’m curious AND confused… What did you think “Transformers” was going to be about? Honestly, that was one of the most ridiculous comments I’ve ever read regarding a movie someone knew they were walking into.

  • Robo-Snark

    Uh, duh. It IS a boys movie — please. Doesn’t mean chicks can’t like it, even nerds like Candice and her icky T-shirt.

  • Will

    Transformers just wasn’t good. Yes it had lots of action, but it was just so loud and stupid.
    And Megan Fox is a terrible actress. Yes she may be attractive, but is it too much to ask that she be attractive AND be a good actress.

  • Will

    Transformers simply wasn’t a good movie. Yes the action scenes were alright, but it was just so loud and stupid.
    And I’m sorry, but Megan Fox is a terrible actress. Yes she is attractive, but is it too much to ask that she be attractive AND be a good actress?

  • BayFan62

    Transformers was awesome.

  • DJ MASACRE

    eesh .. one day you kids will grow up and learn what makes a real movie i guess.
    if you didnt care about how well a movie is being made and just like to see a movie with nonstop loud explosions, running actors and bad robot fighting, then i guess there it is. yes transformers 2 you expect robot fighting , but if you really understood the mechanics of a movie, all Michael Bay did was spew more of the mistakes he made in the 1st
    btw, the 1st was good
    kids .. read the reviews and you will understand why this movie actually isnt so good. accept it or not, its just the facts.
    but if you like mind numbing movies go for it.
    most accurate reviews ive seen yet
    http://www.aintitcool.com/node/41503
    http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090623/REVIEWS/906239997
    ususally i dont like critics reviews,
    sorry kids, but its just the truth.
    if they do make part 3 which they will , they better do it right.

  • Kati

    Wow, a movie called “Transformers” was all about giant robots fighting? Wow, color me shocked *snorts*
    This girl wants non-stop action, fighting, blowing stuff up! That’s what blockbusters are about! You don’t like it? Go and watch an indie film! That simple *shrugs*

  • Me

    It is a good movie, specially for kids. They understeand more the story then “some people”. Let the kids to be “kids” watching these kind of movies. When they grow up, they’ll decide what they want to watch. ALTHOGH transformers has too much for kids under 8 years old. (Bad words, sex words, et.)

  • Me

    The girl is hot, very hot…ohh yes.

  • man1985

    “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, has already grossed $60.6 million on its opening day, so we know that the fanboys have turned out in force. In fact, the movie is destined to cross the $100 million mark”
    You obviously had no idea how the box-office works did you. You’re telling me you were expecting it to make at least another $40 million on Thursday? Even though no movie has ever held that well before? The very best a movie opening on wednesday can hope for is a 50% drop. That means TF2 was always destined to do no better than $30 million on Thursday. Well the numbers are in and it made $28.6 million. That’s just $90 million. Far from the $100 million you were claiming.

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