Forget what the calendar says, box office fans — summer’s almost here! At the movies, that is. Just one weekend remains before Hollywood starts rolling out its big silly season blockbusters with Wolverine on May 1. And, for likely the last time in three months, we’ve got a tight race in store. Four big new movies (Obsessed, The Soloist, Earth, and Fighting) are in theaters, but only one can win. Here’s what I think will happen.
1. Obsessed — $15 million
The plot of this drama starring Beyonce Knowles, Ali Larter, and the suddenly everywhere Idris Elba sounds like pure thriller cheese — a sort of campy cross between Fatal Attraction and The Temp. Ha ha ha. Well, hey, laugh all you want, but in this crowded field, with no potential blockbuster competition, Obsessed stands the best chance of winning (by default). And considering how so many movies have been overperforming lately, it could hit the $20 mil mark.
2. The Soloist — $13 million
You know that the summer box office season hasn’t truly arrived, because, for the second straight week, Hollywood is rolling out the kind of no-frills feature with merely moderate revenue potential that doesn’t get made much anymore. In the fact-based tale, Jamie Foxx and Robert Downey Jr. play a musically gifted homeless man and a journalist who develop a friendship. The guys are pretty big stars, which means that The Soloist could sneak into the top spot if Obsessed stumbles. But they may not be big enough to draw a mass of people to an effects-free drama…about classical music…which is playing in just 2,024 locations…that was delayed from an originally intended Oscar-season release date.
3. 17 Again — $12 million
Zac Efron’s age-reversal comedy premiered nicely at No. 1 last weekend, and a 50 percent drop should keep it in the mix again this time around.
4. Earth — $10 million
Disney’s G-rated nature documentary narrated by James Earl Jones started off well on Wednesday (a.k.a. Earth Day), with $4 million. It’s not your typical family film, but it’s the best (new) bet for all the antsy kids and their folks over the weekend.
5. Fighting — $9 million
Gotta respect any movie that belongs to the Snakes on a Plane/Shoot ‘Em Up/Earth school of movie titles — simple, straightforward, and sweet! Of course, neither Snakes on a Plane nor Shoot ‘Em Up did much business at the box office, so maybe the makers of this Channing Tatum urban action flick should have gone in a different direction, moniker-wise.
How do you see things shaping up?
More Box Office News:
17 Again handily wins the weekend
Hannah Montana: The Movie wins the weekend
Fast & Furious shatters records with $72.5 mil weekend
Monsters vs. Aliens opens at No. 1 with $58.2 mil
Knowing cruises to weekend victory
EW.com’s Box Office Chart
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Good luck with your box office predictions, Josh. I think The Soloist and Obsessed will be switched. The Soloist got a big boost from its true story being aired on 60 Minutes with the actual musician and reporter a few weeks ago. Adults haven’t forgotten the riveting true tale of this schizo-genius musician. I’m guessing high teens, 18-19 million, for The Soloist, and 17 mill for Obsessed. I agree with your number 3 and 4 picks, but I also think Monsters VS Aliens will round out the top 5 with 9 million or more. It’s been in the daily top 3 all week with averages close to one million dollars per day and the weekend is here! That always, so far, equates to about triple the box office numbers for this movie on Fridays (should do 3 million Friday)and consistently doing bigger box office business on Saturdays and Sundays.
Gah, none of these movies look good, can’t wait for Star Trek, then we will get some real cinema.
The horny male population that go to the movies will triple this weekend with Obsessed! Wow…the hotness of Beyonce and Ali
http://tvdonewright.com/
Went to the press screening of STAR TREK tonight in Philly, and gotta say, as a non-Trekkie, I was highly impressed with both the wit & action of the movie. I may actually even go see it again next month with my dear ol’ dad. FIGHTING was surprisingly witty as well as exciting, but since its not Rated R, the fight sequences are never that violent or bloody, which could ultimately lead to low box office returns. A shame, Channing Tatum is smokin’ hot, but maybe he’ll be able to open a movie like FIGHTING more effectively after appearing in this summer’s G.I.JOE: RISE OF COBRA…
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LOL at The Soloist! That movie has flop written all over it. I’d be shocked it it makes $5 mill in its first weekend.
I think “The Soloist” will be number one. “Earth” could do very well too. Many schools are buying out tickets for this movie and the response has been terrific. I am taking my Mom to see “Earth” on Mother’s Day because she loves that kind of stuff.
You guys at Entertainment Weekly can hire me when my predictions are fulfilled…
1. ‘FIGHTING’
The same low I.Q. herd followers who came out for ‘FAST AND FURIOUS’ will be coming out for this drivel as well. There are a lot of testosterone laden, knuckle dragging, meat heads out there. I expect this one to reel them all in, and surprise the industry with a haul of more than $20 million….
2. ‘EARTH’
Families will flock to this nature friendly flick. Parents love forcing their children to watch educational movies about nature.
3. ‘17 Again’
Teenage girls who missed this one last week will storm the theaters again in droves.
4. ‘The Soloist’
Nobody wants to see this movie. Even the easily brainwashed mothers will decide to save their money and go with the Lifetime movie of the week to get their fix of ’schmaltz.’
5. ‘Obsessed’
This looks like the worst movie in years. So bad in fact, that it inspired to post these excessive comments.
i cant wait to see OBSESSED i love beyonce ahhhh i cant wait!!!!!!
Wouldn’t be surprised if 17 again repeated. The kids love Efron.
Those TOOLS (you know who who you are T.R.) at fox lied! Not surprising, Just pathetic!
http://filmdrunk.uproxx.com/2009/04/fox-lied-about-wolverine-leak
I think “The Soloist” will tank. It looks like a major snooze-fest, it doesn’t even feature a romance to pull in the estrogen crowd, and the kids/urban crowd that would otherwise consider a movie with Ironman &/or Ray Charles in it will be totally thrown off by all the classical music and man-hugs in the previews. I think both “Fighting” and “Earth” will do better than you predict. I’d guess something more along the lines of 1. Fighting, 2. Earth, 3. 17 Again, 4. Obsessed, 5. (or even lower) The Soloist. Based on *The Soloist* previews, I’d rather sit thru both the Hannah Montana schrott or Fast & Furious Trois than a maudlin buddy movie about rescuing a homeless classical musician.
I think that Obsessed should hit $20 million over the weekend. According to http://theboxofficejunkie.com “his thriller has a lot going for it: The female leads should draw in women. The fact that the female leads wrestle on the floor should draw in men. Having black leads (Beyoncé’s husband is played by Idris Elba) will draw in ethnic audiences.”
1)The Soloist- $15 Million:
With RDJ’s popularity growing and with the great story it has I think this movie could pull off the win.
2)17 Again- $12 Million:
This movie will probably just pull off the win for 2nd if Obsessed doesn’t open well.
3)Obsessed- $11 Million:
Even though it is having the biggest screen count it does not look like it is forming a strong of an audience.
4)Earth- $10 Million:
With good reviews and with its good opening on Wednesday. Earth should do fairly well.
5)State of Play- $9 Million:
The Soloist will probably take some of its audience but, it will probably have a decent decline.
And out of the Top 5-
6)Fighting- $8 Million:
Just like Obsessed, this movie just does not look like it has a strong of an audience.
As for the next weekend-
1)X-Men Origins: Wolverine
2)Ghosts of Girlfriends Past
3)The Soloist
4)Obsessed
5)17 Again
And out of the Top 5
Battle of Terra
I think we all know who is going to be #1. But the question is how much is Wolverine going to make
1) Obsessed – 18 million 2) The Soloist – 16 million 3) Earth – 13 million 4) 17 Again – 11 million 5) Fighting – 8 million