If you’re a tween girl, this weekend at the movies is for you. If you’re a regular person, you may want to sit it out. Why? Because the top two films are likely to be Zac Efron’s 17 Again and Miley Cyrus’ Hannah Montana: The Movie. Sure, grownups/guys will get Jason Statham’s Crank sequel and the Russell Crowe thriller State of Play. But the Disney-loving kids will be having most of the fun. Here’s how I see things shaping up.
1. 17 Again — $26 million
The age-reversal plot is awfully familiar, and so’s the star — to a certain demographic, at least. Thanks to the High School Musical franchise, Efron brings with him legions of fans who should make this movie No. 1, no matter how hackneyed it may seem. (I mean, most kids clamoring to see it weren’t even alive when Big came out. Or, practically, 13 Going on 30.) Last fall, High School Musical 3: Senior Year opened to a giant $42 million, after all. The interesting thing to keep an eye on is how well Efron attracts older people to the multiplex. He had a strong, small role in the hit Hairspray a few years ago, and he’s been featured on late-night TV and in sexy magazine spreads recently, so grownups know him. But is he as much a draw for them as he is for their children? The answer could determine just how big 17 Again becomes. By some estimates, my prediction here is a bit high, but movies like Hannah Montana have been overperforming at the box office lately, so….
2. Hannah Montana: The Movie — $15 million
It, um, overperformed at the box office last weekend, banking $32.3 mil. So a hefty drop is in store, especially with 17 Again competing for many of the same eyes. Then again, even a sizable decline will leave it with a nice chunk of change.
3. Crank: High Voltage — $14 million
Jason Statham’s sequel to the 2006 action flick (which bowed with $10.5 mil and went on to earn $27.8 mil domestically) is the main fresh offering for younger guys, so it should perform well, despite that R rating and moderate screen count.
4. Monsters vs. Aliens — $14 million
The 3-D extravaganza has grossed nearly $150 mil in three weeks, and it keeps on truckin’.
5. Fast & Furious — $12 million
With more than $120 mil in its coffers since opening in first position two weeks ago, Vin Diesel’s car movie should cruise along fine against all the kid-oriented traffic (and the R-rated Crank).
ALSO OPENING WIDE
State of Play — $11 million
Like star Russell Crowe’s last film, Body of Lies, and the great 2007 spy drama Breach, this newspaper-based political thriller, inspired by a popular BBC miniseries (and set in my hometown of Washington, D.C., no less!), is totally my kind of movie. And, alas, it’s totally not the kind of movie that makes much of a dent at the box office these days: Even with Crowe and Leonardo DiCaprio starring, Body of Lies banked just $12.9 mil in its debut last fall, and Breach premiered with a mere $10.5 mil before that. (And the list goes on.) Yes, this film marks the return of Rachel McAdams and, to a lesser extent, Ben Affleck, in high-profile roles, but I fear I’ll be sitting in a pretty empty theater when I check out State of Play this weekend.
So, how do you rank ‘em?
More Box Office News:
Hannah Montana: The Movie wins the weekend
Fast & Furious shatters records with $72.5 mil weekend
Monsters vs. Aliens opens at No. 1 with $58.2 mil
Knowing cruises to weekend victory
EW.com’s Box Office Chart
Comments (1-15) of 16 Add your comment
those predictions are to easy to make i go for crank #1 at least one week i think because of sick people will enjoy the guy gettin a heart transplant and even sucking on jumper cables cool movie.
Why is the word “um” featured in about 50% of articles on this site?
I was going to see State of Play, but instead I’ll be seeing 17 Again with my friends. That’s the problem with being mature for 19.
I feel bad for parents lol
http://tvdonewright.com/2009/04/17/tv-tonight-friday-april-17th-2009/
17 again has been getting rave reviews — just check out rottentomatoes.com. Glad to hear that it’s a great movie as well. I can’t wait to see it
Good luck with your predictions this week Josh but I got to think that your ‘17 Again’ number is a little bloated and the Ben Affleck drama is a little flat. First, ‘17′ is totally a fluff piece with a little manufactured substance stuck here & there. But most importantly this movie is going to have a hard time pulling in huge audiences with Hannah Montana hogging the preteen and younger set while Monsters Versus Aliens continues to haul in people of all ages; (a month later and another huge weekend- 16.2 mill). The ‘17 Again’ audience will probably be composed of girls, mainly high school teen girls and late preteen girls; 19.5 mill.
State of Play has the best thing and the worst thing going for it, Oscar winner and fan favorite, Ben Affleck and a boring trailer with a bad vibe. One will help its overall box office and one will negate it. Guess which. Still, a 14 million dollar weekend is possible before it collapses. Steep drops are in store for both Hannah and Furious- 12 mill.
I’ll go out on a limb and say $26 is about right. Maybe $24. But the following weekend will see it cut down to $12 and the movie will be considered a dud; but producers & Zacquisha will cop a claim of a small budget as spin. Efron will NEVER be a Leonardo DiCaprio transition from teen heart throb to seriously-taken actor. Sorry. He just doesn’t have what it takes.
It looks like it will be round 2 for tween girls at the theaters-
1)17 Again- $28 Million:
We have just seen from last weekend the power of tween girls and so this weekend will probably not be different.
2)Crank: High Voltage- $17 Million:
With the success of the first one and with no competition, I think you are underestimating this one.
3)Hannah Montana: The Movie- $15 Million:
Even though it had a some what big opening, it will probably take a steep dive thanks to the fact of the opening of 17 Again.
4)State of Play- $13 Million:
With good reviews and with no competition in its genre. I think this movie is getting underestimated.
5)Fast and Furious- $12 Million:
It will take another steep dive thanks to the fact that Crank: High Voltage will take most of its audience. But, it will probably stay in the Top 5 for one more week if not Monsters Vs. Aliens will be #5 and Fast and Furious will be #6.
As for the next weekend-
1)The Soloist
2)17 Again
3)Obsessed
4)Hannah Montana: The Movie
5)Crank: High Voltage
(And at #6 will probably be Fighting)
I will probably be checking out The Soloist that weekend and after that weekend and after that weekend, The Summer Movie Season kicks-off!!!
As for the next weekend-
1)The Soloist
2)17 Again
3)Obsessed
4)Hannah Montana: The Movie
5)Crank: High Voltage
(As for Fighting it will probably come in #6)
I will be checking out The Soloist that weekend and after that weekend, The Summer Movie Season kicks-off!!!
Breaking story: Susan Boyle wanted as new church choir director…
pitchbendpost.blogspot.com/
Josh hasn’t been right all year…no reason to get anything correct this week. I hope EW doesn’t pay him to be wrong. He’s worse than a weather man.
yeah, the only real movie releasing this week is state of play, which is in danger of being over-performed by the immaturity and stupidity of crank and mr. efron. meanwhile, I bid you movie-goers peace and goodwill as I settle down with one of my dvds, there will be blood. odd, I think my brain is functioning as I watch this epic masterpiece…..
I’d say the weekend will go like this:
1. 17 Again, $25 mill
2. Hannah Montana, $14.7 mill
3. State of Play, $14.1 mill
4. Fast and Furious, $12 mill
5. Crank, $ 11.7 mill
6. Monsters v. Aliens, $11 mill
For some reason, ET always gets this one wrong! I found another site that’s better at this but… let’s just leave it at that.