Okay, time to put on your 3-D glasses, box office fans! This weekend sees the debut of Monsters vs. Aliens, DreamWorks Animation’s initial foray into what it promises will soon be the norm: movies in 3-D. In honor of this landmark event, I tried to write this column in three dimensions, but only got so far as “DreamWo…” before I started to feel totally car sick.
So I’ll spare you the barf and just say that, of course, Monsters vs. Aliens will win the weekend opposite two other big new releases — The Haunting in Connecticut and 12 Rounds — and you can read on to see exactly how much I think each movie will make.
1. Monsters vs. Aliens — $66 million
Recent spreads in Entertainment Weekly and several of its sister Time Inc. publications make it clear that the marketing might behind this animated family film has been in overdrive for quite a while. So there’s no doubt that its premiere will be big. But how much will the film earn? Well, considering that families are probably desperate to see a big-screen extravaganza right now (Coraline and Race to Witch Mountain have fared well, but both are fading), it could draw an unusually high number of ticket buyers. Add in the fact that many of the tickets to the film’s 1,550 3-D showings (it’s in 4,104 theaters total) will cost more than the usual multiplex admission, and we’re looking at a debut gross in the range of Ice Age 2’s $68 mil, which arrived on this weekend three years ago.
2. Knowing — $12 million
Nicolas Cage’s sci-fi flick sorta surprised last weekend, with a $24.6 mil win. But it should drop an expected 50 percent or so against such stiff competition this time around.
3. I Love You, Man — $12 million
That $17.8 mil bow was a tad weak, let’s be honest, but I’d like to believe that Paul Rudd’s R-rated buddy comedy will hold onto its audience better than any other sophomore movie this weekend, because it’s the only major funny film in the marketplace. And, um, because it rocks! (Sure, I’m biased.)
4. The Haunting in Connecticut — $12 million
The trailer, poster, title — everything leading up to the release of this allegedly fact-based horror-thriller starring Virginia Madsen has baffled folks around these parts for being so kind of banal. To that end, I expect a perfectly pedestrian $12 mil opening weekend gross, which is about average for movies of this ilk.
5. 12 Rounds — $8 million
The plot of this action movie from WWE and wrestler John Cena sounds like an odd mashup of Taken, Die Hard With a Vengeance, and, I guess, The Wrestler. But if that doesn’t sell it to you, try this: It’s directed by long-under-the-radar action auteur Renny Harlin! Seriously, I’m actually thinking of going to see it now.
Now, how do you see the weekend playing out?
More Box Office News:
Knowing cruises to weekend victory
Race to Witch Mountain casts a spell at No. 1
Watchmen wins the weekend with $55.7 mil
Madea tops Jonas Brothers for a second box office win
EW.com’s Box Office Chart
Comments (1-15) of 16 Add your comment
you may be right on when it comes to monsters vs aliens being top dog this weekend – but once again you are predicting too low for a horror debut. do you have something against horror or something? “haunting in connecticut” has the most buzz worthy trailers for any horror film yet this year – so its a definite number two this week without a doubt
http://idolworld.co.kr/bbs/k.php?id=qhtmhisato&url=000
i wish to cheang my life
Sorry but Monsters vs Aliens is not making 66 mil this weekend. More like 25 if even that.
you underestimate the power of kids begging for them to go see it.
45 million at least
Yeah. I wanted to see AvM myself, and then I started to suspect the best moments may already be in the trailer. Next weekend looks more likely to pull me into the theatres for ADVENTURELAND or SUNSHINE CLEANING which both look promising for non-rehashed comedy.
Monsters vs. Aliens looks like the DUMBEST MOVIE EVER! You’d have to be an IDIOT to want to see it!
Just saw Sunshine Cleaning and really enjoyed it. Amy Adams and Emily Blunt were really great.
HA!!
1)Monsters vs. Aliens- $62 Million:
With a great stroy line and with no competition, MVA will dominate!
2)Knowing- $14 Million:
One of Cage’s best films in qutie some time but still it will probably take a steep dive.
3)I Love You, Man- $13 Million
With its positive word of mouth, there will maybe be a battle for #2
4)The Haunting in Connecticut- $12 Million:
Agree with you on this one in that I mean this movie looks all over the place with trying to be very scary.
5)Duplicity- $9 Million:
Probably wil sneek into 5th thanks to the fact that 12 Rounds wasn’t not advertised a whole lot. Thus 12 Rounds will come in #6 with $8 Million
And as for Next Weekend
1)Fast and Furious
2)Monsters vs. Aliens
3)I Love You, Man
4)Knowing
5)The Haunting of Connt.
Hey Josh, I wouldn’t be surprised if your predictions are spot on this weekend. Great observations noted with each film. Pre-weekend ticket sales for Monsters are enormous. And I Love You, Man ran neck and neck with Knowing at the box office this week according to daily tracking. It also has alot of positive buzz going for it. So, it might even surpass Knowing over the weekend. The horror flick might open about 2 mill. higher and the John Cena film, about 2 mill lower.
looks just about right!!!
12 rounds looks just like “the marine” hahaha but it will do the same box office 8 mil.
Man, did Watchmen ever die a quick death!
I hope this means EW will revise it’s list of greatest directors after calling Zack Snyder one of the best after just 2 ‘meh’ movies.
It sucks
Yo Rich…looks like you are way off so far!