It’ll be a tight fight for supremacy at the box office this weekend, as three big new releases — the buzzy R-rated comedy I Love You, Man, the Julia Roberts spy movie Duplicity, and the Nicolas Cage sci-fi flick Knowing — compete against formidable reigning champ Race to Witch Mountain. And all have an equal chance to win. I mean, to call this weekend wide open is like calling Watchmen a box office disappointment (you know, because it is). Anyway, here’s how I see the battle shaping up.
1. I Love You, Man — $21 million
Paul Rudd and Jason Segel (pictured, with Rashida Jones) star in this raw “bro-mantic” comedy, which should be catnip for the fellas out there. You know, the same guys who gave Rudd’s Role Models a $19.2 mil debut last fall, the same dudes who helped propel Segel’s Forgetting Sarah Marshall to a $17.7 mil first-weekend take 11 months ago. Certainly, from where I stand, it’s the most talked-about new film of the weekend. And you can never underestimate one other thing it has going for it during these tough times in the world: I Love You, Man is filled with laughs, and right now people want to laugh.
2. Race to Witch Mountain — $16 million
As the weekend’s only big family film, Dwayne Johnson’s Disney update (which opened with a super-solid $24.4 mil) may just sneak in there and win another round.
3. Duplicity — $15 million
With this romantic thriller (rom-thrill?) from Michael Clayton’s Tony Gilroy, Julia Roberts has her first major leading role since…gosh, 2004’s Closer or 2003’s Mona Lisa Smile, depending on how you want to argue it. Point is, America’s sweetheart has been out of the conversation for quite a while, popping up only in supporting roles in the Ocean’s movies and Charlie Wilson’s War or lending her voice to Charlotte’s Web. Her costar Clive Owen, meanwhile, has compiled an impressive resume since he, too, appeared in Closer, but the poor $25.2 mil take of The International earlier this year shows that the jury’s still out on him as a box office force. All of which is to say that this movie could do well if Roberts’ core fan base of older women turns out in droves (as they’ve done for He’s Just Not That Into You, Sex and the City, and other recent releases). Or, more likely, it’ll face some problems.
4. Knowing — $12 million
Nicolas Cage’s latest mindbender is playing in the most theaters this weekend (3,332), so it has an edge, right? Maybe, maybe not. The key here is whether this relatively unheralded film, from sci-fi auteur Alex Proyas and indie distributor Summit (yes, the folks who brought you Twilight), will play out more like Cage’s Ghost Rider ($45.4 mil debut) or Next ($7.1 mil opening). My gut is that it’ll wind up much like the latter.
5. Watchmen — $8 million
Good news: Zack Snyder’s superheroes will probably hit the $100 million mark this weekend. Bad news: Really, they should have gotten there already.
Now, it’s your turn! What do you think will happen? Does Julia Roberts have another hit in her? What about Nic Cage? Weigh in below?
More Box Office News:
‘Race to Witch Mountain’ casts a spell at No. 1
‘Watchmen’ wins the weekend with $55.7 mil
‘Madea’ tops ‘Jonas Brothers’ for a second box office win
‘Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail’ wins big at the box office
‘Friday the 13th’ slashes records
EW.com’s Box Office Chart
Comments (1-15) of 21 Add your comment
I will probably see Knowing, only b/c my curiosity is killing me, and this movie has been showing trailers for like a year. I’ll will most likely be disappointed, so i’ll just see I Love You Man the next night…LOL. I hope Watchmen dies out after this weekend…it was too long and too boring. Can’t wait for May 1st…that is when the Summer really begins.
I’ll be seeing Watchmen again this weekend.
don’t forget that Clive Owen was excellent in ‘Children of Men’, which a lot of ppl liked. I’ll be seeing ‘I Love You, Man’ and ‘Duplicity’ this weekend. Just saw ‘Confessions of a Shopaholic’ this Wed, and it was so funny and sweet! Plus, Hugh Dancy is just too damn fine in it. He NEEDS to become a huge star.
I’m not so sure about Watchmen being at #5. I’m going to see it again this weekend along with Coraline.
the production budget for “watchman” is around $150 mil. wasn’t gonna comment but i’m still quite upset with this movie. producer, i demand a refund!!!
I’m not sure why people are so surprised that “Watchmen” has disappointed in the box office. It never screamed mass appeal hit.
Watchmen was never going to be the next 300, you should stop basing your predictions on what so-and-so’s last movie did. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Taken held in the top five, it’s a great popcorn flick and Liam Neeson is certainly in people’s thoughts at the moment.
Julia Roberts gets my money this weekend. Next weekend I’m planning on seeing I Love You Man.
Saw the early screening of “I Love You Man” in Manhattan last night and thought it was friggin’ hysterical! definitely the funniest movie to come out in quite some time~millions of laughs…btw Watchmen was absolutely the WORST 3 hrs of my life and i too demand a refund…to think i even considered paying extra to see it in IMAX~great decision not to on my part! the editing was terrible, the storyline didn’t have logical progression and i caught myself nodding off quite a few times even during the actions scenes! WOW what a let down…
Am I the only one who thinks “I Love You, Man” is going to win by a mile.
I understand Joshua’s line of thinking in predicting “Man”s take to be along the lines of “Role Models” and “Sarah Marshall”, but what he’s not taking into account is the fact that the popularity of those movies combined (as well as the rising star power of Segel and, especially, Rudd) will be out in full force for “Man.” Add in pretty solid reviews across the board, and I think it makes a LOT closer to $30 mil than $20 mil.
Not that anyone asked, but here are my picks:
1. I Love You, Man $29 mil
2. Race to Witch Mountain $15 mil
3. Duplicity $12 mil
4. Watchmen $10 mil
5. Knowing $8 mil
I think one of the 3 new movies is gonna exceed expectations…and I think it’ll be “I Love You, Man”. I saw it a couple weeks ago and it has “hit” written all over it.
I think you got this completely wrong!
1)Knowing- $24 million
2)I Love You, Man- $21 million
3)Duplicity- $16 million
4)Race To Witch Mountain- $11 million
5)Watchmen- $9 million
Knowing I think will pull out the win because I don’t know to me this actually looks good. Followed then by I Love You, Man will a close gap and then Duplicity.
Next week the great Monsters VS. Aliens is coming out so I think we already know who is going to be #1
I don’t know if it will reach number 1, but I’m excited to see Duplicity. I’ve missed Julia Roberts in leading lady status. Charlie Wilson’s War did not cut it, and Roberts was more of a distraction than an asset in that boring film. Duplicity seems as if it will complement her charm and talent more.
I think it’s just going to be a big weekend at the movies period. You got Julia Roberts coming back with the up and coming sexy Clive Owen in “Duplicity.” You got “I Love You, Man” which, while the trailers look unfunny to me personally, has received good reviews overall. And has Rudd and Segel. “Race to Witch Mountain” should play well again. For me, the verdict is up in the air for “Knowing.” It looks like the National Treasure movies crossed with Next. While I don’t think it will gross nearly as much as National Treasure 2 in the first weekend, like Josh says, will it gross closer to Next’s 7.1 mil?
BTW, I loved “Watchmen.” Between a 100 mil+ box office here, money from overseas’ box office, and DVD rentals/sales, it should make back its budget, IMO.
No doubt “I Love You, Man” will take the top spot. I think Knowing will tank. I mean look at his past few movies that weren’t National Treasure. “Bangkok” did terrible, “Wicker Man” was a joke, and I’m still not sure if “Next” even came out! If it isn’t superhero related or another National Treasure, any Nicolas Cage movie is going to flop big time.