This weekend is almost as far away from the 2010 Oscar season as possible — so it’s no wonder that the multiplex marquee resembles the bargain bin at your local Blockbuster! Sure enough, the four new movies make for an eclectic mix, but only one can come out on top. Here’s how I see this Martin Luther King holiday frame playing out. (And take note: You may not have to work/go to school on Monday, but the following gross projections are for the usual Friday-to-Sunday period.)
1. My Bloody Valentine 3D — $23 million
The Unborn fared much better than expected last weekend, grossing $19.8 mil in its spine-tingling debut. So can this scary movie remake (pictured) do just as well? Absolutely! Why? Because, as one of many 3-D films due to be released this year, My Bloody Valentine will be playing in hundreds of theaters that are going to charge filmgoers even more than the usual arm and leg. Fair or not, higher ticket prices mean bigger box office.
2. Hotel for Dogs — $21 million
Canine movies had plenty to bark about in 2008 (ugh, you’re not alone: I just groaned at myself, too!), with audiences throwing Beverly Hills Chihuahua, Bolt, and Marley & Me big box office bones (ugh, again!). The average first-weekend take of those three flicks: $30.6 mil. Now, this movie — starring Emma Roberts and Don Cheadle — may come in a bit lower than that, considering all of its human/awards-season competition. But, still, I see no reason why the trend should stop now.
3. Gran Torino — $18 million
With a huge $29.5 mil debut under his belt, clearly, Clint Eastwood is still the man. And his action-drama could wind up with another weekend win, if all the freshman flicks fall flat.
4. Paul Blart: Mall Cop — $15 million
If the title confuses you, here’s the plot of this broad comedy: Kevin James plays a mall cop named Paul Blart. Better? Good.
5. Notorious — $12 million
The long-anticipated Notorious B.I.G. biopic finally hits theaters this weekend. Starring Angela Bassett, Derek Luke, Anthony Mackie, and newcomer Jamal Woolard as Biggie himself, the film should fare well — and confuse the hell out of excited cinephiles who buy tickets to the show…only to realize when the lights go down that it wasn’t directed by Alfred Hitchcock.
EXPANDING WIDE AFTER LIMITED RUNS
Last Chance Harvey — $10 million
You could call this charmer starring dual dual-Oscar winners Dustin Hoffman and Emma Thompson a middle-aged romance, except that Hoffman is 71 while Thompson is just 49. I call that a little bit creepy. And a double standard. (But, hey, it’s Hollywood!)
Defiance — $10 million
The latest from underrated (yet, yes, Oscar-owning) auteur Edward Zwick details the experiences of four Polish brothers who fought back against the Nazis in World War II, saving more than 1,000 Jews. Featuring James Bond with an Eastern European accent.
But what do you think? Hit me with your weekend picks below.
More Box Office News:
EW.com’s Box Office Chart
Gran Torino drives away with a win
Batman was a blockbuster, but did 2008 bomb?
Marley & Me wins for a second straight week
Marley & Me leads the Christmas box office
Comments (1-15) of 18 Add your comment
I’m torn between really NOT wanting to see My Bloody Valentine and supporting Jensen Ackles. The movie looks pretty bad.
Don’t people realize that “bad” movies can still be extremely entertaining if done correctly? My Bloody Valentine looks to have its heart (and pickax) in the right place.
I CANNOT WAIT till MY BLOODY VALENTINE is released in my Country! It’s so hard to stay spoilerfree but I don’t wanna ruin the experience! Yay for 3D!
MBV3D is at 86% Fresh on Rottentomatoes.com.
I think you are really underestimating Notorious. This movie is highly anticipated, pushed very hard by MTV and BET which means the youth will come out in droves, this is a holiday weekend which brings out more people to the cineplex. I mean if you look at all the urban movies that have come out in the past 6 months, you under estimated them all. From Not Easily Broken, to Secret Life of Bees. Don’t be surprised if Notorious hit over $20 million, even the top movie.
Notorious will bomb at the box office.
This movie did not need to be made. Baby baby….
How in the world can you say “Ugh” and “Groan” to “Marley and Me????” Sure the plot may seem cliched but the movie has heart and the puppy/dog in the movie is ADORABLE. It’s nice to have a movie like this that kids and adults can both go to. And although “Hotel For Dogs” is not the greatest movie, the movie shows how important dog adoption is. Every time you see this movie the money goes to support animal shelters. That alone is worth it. The dogs look cute in this movie as well. Now “Beverly Hills Chihuahua”, that’s a different story. That movie looks plain silly. (I’m sorry. I know many people love those dogs but not me).
I think you’re underestimating Defiance and Paul Blart.
I went to a screening of My Bloody Valentine last night. It was so fun. The 3D was great, and it doesn’t aspire to be anything more than a gory, funny slasher movie. It’s cheesy, but it knows it’s cheesy.
I want to see My Bloody Valentine only because of Jensen. Haha! I think this is the first movie of his that’s actually been released into theaters. But I will only see it in 3D. I’ll fork over the extra money for a little bit more fun.
Tough week to guess, Josh. I’ll admittedly give you credit (for the first time) if you pull this off.
I’m going with either a repeat win for Gran Torino, or Mall Cop takes the throne. I chuckled here and there at the trailer. We’ll find out if Kevin James can open a movie without Adam Sandler or Will Smith.
I kind of want to see My Bloody Valentine; 3-D can make a bad movie decent. But are people willing to fork over the extra $ for the 3D experience? Especially since it’s not like every theater even has that presentation.
Dog movies have been doing well. But I haven’t seen a single ad for Hotel for Dogs.
Notorious should be really big with the urban market. But it’s hard to gauge if this will do Tyler Perry-like numbers. A lot of people still don’t like rap music. Hopefully, the story of one of the most influential hip-hop musicians will be interesting enough to reach more than just one demographic.
I think Defiance is going to open bigger than predicted. Craig is becoming a bankable star now.
Um, I think I’m going to ignore all of the above, and bloody well drive to Atlanta (which is against my religion, I think) to see Slumdog Millionaire, because the stupid theaters here in Athens, GA aren’t showing it. Morons. That’s really the only thing I’m interested in seeing right now, until the third Underworld opens next week. Yes, I know, but I can’t help it, Underworld films are one of my guilty pleasures. Well, I suppose I might spring for My Bloody Valentine, just to see the always brilliant Jensen Ackles. I suppose I’ll have to drive to stupid, crowded Atlanta for that too. Gah.
Predictions from Friday-Monday
1)My Bloody Valentine 3D: $29 million
2)Hotel for Dogs: $27 million
3)Gran Torino: $19 million
4)Notorious: $15 million
5)Paul Blart: Mall Cop: $14 million
It looks like it will be another great weekend at the movies. There will be a movie for everyone. To me it seems that MBV3D and HFD will be the ones fighting for #1
“MBV3D is at 86% Fresh on Rottentomatoes.com.”
With zero “top critic” reviews and most of the actual reviews being from the likes of http://www.bloodydisgusting.com…not quite Kenneth Turan there.