The first full weekend in December is always pretty slow at the box office, which is surprising given that it falls right in the heart of the big holiday movie season. What gives? Maybe it has something to do with post-Thanksgiving fatigue. Maybe people are too busy shopping and spending money elsewhere to hit the multiplex. The point is that this trend does not bode well for the main freshman flicks this weekend, Punisher: War Zone and the smaller releases Cadillac Records and Nobel Son. But it could spell fresh success for Bolt, which has been bubbling under the top spot for two weeks now. Here’s how I see this quiet weekend at the box office panning out.
1. Bolt — $17 million
After two weeks in theaters, Disney’s animated flick has a good chance of ascending to the No. 1 spot, especially after its audience actually increased by 1.4 percent over the Thanksgiving holiday. That’s very rare, ya know. A 35 percent drop should keep it in the race for the top.
2. Four Christmases — $15 million
How impressed was I by the holiday comedy’s big bow last time around? Very. What are the chances that this result will restore my belief in Reese Witherspoon’s box office power? Uh, ask me on Sunday.
3. Twilight — $12 million
The message boards tell me that some people are getting tired of reading about this movie. And yet…it continues to clean up at the box office. Go figure.
4. Quantum of Solace — $10 million
With more than $145 mil already filling its domestic coffers, Daniel Craig’s 007 sequel is slowly creeping up on Casino Royale’s $167.4 mil Stateside sum. So, yeah, it’ll probably get there. Slowly. Meanwhile, on a worldwide scale, the film, which has banked more than $485 mil to date, still has a ways to go before it reaches its predecessor’s $594.2 mil final tally.
5. Punisher: War Zone — $7 million
Here we have a reboot of the Marvel Comics franchise, starring Rome veteran Ray Stevenson in the Frank Castle role — which is funny, because wasn’t Thomas Jane’s 2004 dud The Punisher itself a reboot of the 1989 Dolph Lundgren movie of the same title? So confusing! One thing that I’m pretty clear about, however, is that this flick won’t be doing much damage at the box office. People didn’t seem to care about the Punisher four years ago (the last movie banked just $33.8 mil), so they’re not going to care about the franchise any more when this less-star-studded incarnation premieres.
ALSO OPENING SORTA WIDE:
Cadillac Records — $3 million
To be exact, Cadillac Records isn’t really opening wide: It’s only playing in few hundred theaters this weekend. Still, this boldface-name-filled studio biopic about Chess Records founder Leonard Chess (Adrien Brody) deserves a mention — partly because any movie starring Mos Def, Jeffrey Wright, and Beyonce is always worth noting, and partly because it could actually beat the Punisher sequel, er, reboot. Or at least Australia.
Nobel Son — $1 million
This indie featuring Alan Rickman as the head of a dysfunctional family also bows in fewer than 1,000 locations. But it might get enough attention to make a mil or so.
More box office news:
Four Christmases jingles all the way to the bank
Box Office Preview: Can Twilight hold off Four Christmases and Australia?
Twilight sinks its teeth into a blockbuster debut
Quantum of Solace stirs up a win
Holiday films to receive season’s greetings, beatings
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Okay…let’s see what will happen. I have yet to watch Bolt (i was quite interested in it), but only after watching Quantum of Solace and Twilight. I’m also interested in Australia…
RE: Twilight
There was a 62% drop in profits from its opening weekend to its second weekend, and it dropped from first to third in its second week. I wouldn’t necessarily call that “cleaning up.”
D:
Actually Twilight came in second last weekend….
Twilight was actually third last weekend (behing 4 xmases and Bolt)
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/
but it was remained in second position everyday this week. Money is still coming in for it!
I think that all the people went to go see Twilight the weekend it came out. Now they are all just going about there Business and we are all going to see it more than once. Also when it comes out on DVD you will all be shocked at what will happen. Also all the movies that are out are all based on a completly different fan bases on most levels. So I think that all the movies did well for what they had to do.
P.S.
*Twilight fan girl squelll! *
Sorry lol.
No way Bolt is jumping from 3rd to 1st. No way Punisher’s coming in 5th. Not for the only major new release. This is crazy talk
Of course there was a big drop in ticket sales for “Twilight” after opening weekend. It made $70 million in one weekend! It’s obvious that just about every fan went to see it as soon as it opened and that’s why it made a lot less $ in it’s second week. The movie is still making a very respectable amount and it’s also starting to bring in a lot of $ from other countries. It’s just opened in the U.K. and has yet to open in some countries where the books are also very popular.
It actually doesn’t open in the UK until the 19th. It will be a huge success there since advance tickets have been doing extremely well. Except huge international numbers!
Twilight’s numbers didn’t just drop. They TANKED in what Box Office Mojo called “one of the steepest Thanksgiving drops ever.”
It’s not doing bad, by any means. But I don’t think it’s necessarily the phenomenon that everyone’s making it out to be. Just the big thing for the moment, in an industry that’s always looking for the NEXT big thing. Twilight’s replacememnt will be along soon enough.
I always have to laugh at the people who point at a 60% drop on a movie that made $70 million on its opening weekend with a lot of that on presales. Come on.. Plus, consider me an atypical Twilighter. I saw the movie without reading the book. Now, I’ve read the book, and I am going to see it again tonight with a friend of mine who has read all four but was “waiting for crowds to die down.” (oh…33 year old male here)
A big opening weekend hardly equals staying power. If people are still watching this movie/reading these books with the same fervor ten years from now, I’ll be surprised.
I’m perplexed by this prediction. “Bolt” has been tracking far behind “Four Christmases”, “Twilight”, “Quantum of Solace”, AND “Australia” all week. While it make get a boost when the kids are out of school over the weekend, I can’t imagine it would make the jump from 5th place all week to first place on the weekend.
http://www.youtube.com/user/CaptainLavenderBand
sorry but for some reason no one watches movies the weekend after thanksgiving, so expect a big drop for everyone.
No one watches movies the weekend after Thanksgiving because no one releases good movies the weekend after Thanksgiving.
1)4 Christmases-$18 million
2)Bolt-$17 million(Not too far behind)
3)Punisher War Zone-$12 million
4)Twilight-$11 million
5)Quantum of Solace-$10 million
To me I feel that Punisher War Zone can either be okay or bomb.
I think Nobel Son is the sleeper of this weekend. This suspense thriller has it all and if the audience it was made for turns out it will rate far higher than predicted.
Twilight dropped like a rock in its second weekend, by more than 60%. That’s not exactly something to be proud of (to be fair, Quantum had a similar steep decline). And don’t use the excuse “Well everyone who wanted to see it has seen it!” If it were the pop culture phenom everyone’s making it out to be, it’d be racking up more repeat business than it is. Any overly hyped film (Thanks, EW) can have a big first weekend. It’s how well it does AFTER that really speaks to the quality and staying power of a film. These numbers suggest to me that by this point, it’s mostly diehards seeing it again, while most other people were (dis)satisfied with one viewing.
I think you’re giving Bolt more credit than it’s due; I think it’s success last week was because of kids being out of school. It’ll do well, but not be #1. As to what will be, no clue.
You can’t just look at huge opening weekends (because any big film with enough press slobbering can have one). You gotta look at its second weekend decline, and the percentage of the final gross that came from its opening weekend.
The Dark Knight, for example, lost a little more than 50% of its first weekend gross in its second weekend. That seems like a lot, but when you look at its overall domestic gross ($530 million), its opening weekend was only about 30% of that total. You’ll find similar numbers for films like Iron Man, Indiana Jones, Kung Fu Panda and other “event films” from this year.
In Twilight’s case, not only did it have a steeper decline (62%), but its opening weekend haul could easily end up being 50%+ of its final domestic intake. That shows that it was fueled by hype for the first weekend, and drooped when people actually saw it.
And yes, I know Dark Knight is bigger and better than Twilight, but I’m looking at percentages, not total numbers.
And Bolt won’t be #1.
Twilight is a horrible film.
I think MILK will be somewhere in the top 5. It expands to wider release this weekend, i think. And has very strong word of mouth.
Twilight is a terrible movie. Go see four christmases or quantum of solace!
oh….
The reason Twilight continues to make money is because of an obnoxiously rabid fanbase of teen girls and desperate soccer moms who see it four times a weekend. I read the books and thought they were okay (just romance novels). But overall I think the infatuation with the film and the books has to do with women who feel lonely. It’s sad to see happen and annoying to read about. I went to see the film, expecting something great (in part because the reviewer on here gave it a B). It was a poorly acted, poorly developed movie. Don’t waste your money watching it. I knew it would be a little bit cheesy, but I wasn’t expecting to laugh through the whole thing. Anytime you write about it, young women (and older women) who can only text type will gladly raid your site, and up your numbers, and talk about how “hott” Edward is. But as far as quality, this is the most overhyped film of the year. If this is America’s answer to Harry Potter, we should all be a little embarrassed.
I honestly wouldn’t be suprised if bolt were to take the top spot…its a kids flick, and what have we learned about the kid fan base? don’t underestimate them…they rake in millions! It doesn’t matter which movie it is,…it could look like the dumbest thing out there but parents will take their kids to go see it. Example: That chihuahua movie. It looked beyond stupid. But see how well it did? Kids=millions! Sad but true.
“The reason Twilight continues to make money is because of an obnoxiously rabid fanbase of teen girls and desperate soccer moms who see it four times a weekend.”
Exactly. The first book was the best out of the entire series, but the movie that is based on it is just… okay. I’m just glad EW has finally stopped their Twilight-love train. I think half its readers got tired of it after a month of blind SMeyer-lovin’.
Bolt – that’s because school is out for some and what better way to get the kids out of the house and away from the cold weather? Movies would be one. I do not think the Mily character goes with the voice, kindda creepy. check out http://www.celebteenmakeovers.com for the Miley Cyrus look.
Just wait till Twilight will be shown in Germany (January 15th). Almost everyone I know is planning on seeing it at least twice although we already saw it on the internet xD
I’m planning on seeing it three times in the opening night (I don’t care that I have school that day) and quiet a few of my friends’ b-days are in January so I’ll get to watch it at least three times more because anything Twilight-related is the best way to celebrate^^
And just wait till the DVD comes out. Twilight will continue making a lot of money. To be honest the quality isn’t perfect but what could you expect of a low budget movie? Just wait for New Moon and Eclipse.
And tomorrow I’ll go buy the soundtrack (finally avaible here in Germany^^).
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