Strike could be a reality by Monday — so expect more reality TV
A month ago, when Hollywood was in full hand-wringing mode over the
potential of a writer's strike, a William Morris agent confidently
declared that such a decision "would defy logic." No reasonable
professional would dare to strike in the midst of a television season,
right?
Wrong.
Less than 12 hours after their contract expired at midnight on Oct. 31,
some 2,000-plus writers assembled in the Los Angeles Convention Center
to hear union leaders declare that a strike will occur; the only
question now is when. Many believe the picket lines could begin forming
as early as this afternoon (at least, that's what some New York-based
scribes were led to believe based on an earlier meeting), but the
common wisdom is that the Writers Guild of America will inform writers
to start waving the placards Monday morning, unless, of course, an
11th-hour deal is hammered out over the weekend. The goal now is to
recruit some of the guild's more recognizable faces to walk the picket
line, though it seems unlikely the WGA will drag Conan O'Brien out in
front of 30 Rock in New York. They might, however, be able to convince
30 Rock creator Tina Fey to wave a sign or two.
As dense as some of the negotiation-speak may seem (what's all this
talk about credit and separate rights, anyway?) the writers' complaints
are pretty simple: every time you catch an episode of Desperate
Housewives on ABC.com, creator/writer Marc Cherry (or his fellow DH
scribe, who may have written that particular epsiode) doesn't get paid
for it. Every time a series writer generates new content for his show's
official Web page, he doesn't get paid for it. The writers also want a
bigger piece of DVD profits (0.6 percent, up from 0.3 percent), so if you
decide to, say, buy season one of Heroes on DVD, the scribes would get
more money in their residual checks. That's what this dispute is about,
give or take a few disagreements over credit and pensions and such.
So what does it mean for viewers if the strike begins Monday? Late
night shows could immediately go into reruns, if David Letterman and
Jay Leno decide not to write their own shows (though Letterman and
Johnny Carson did this back in 1988). Cable yakkers like The Daily Show
and The Colbert Report could also shut down. SNL may be forced to go
black, airing repeats instead.
As for series television, most shows have about six-to-eight weeks
worth of episodes written and in the can waiting to be shot, which will
carry the networks through January, maybe early February. Writers who
also hold the title of producer can continue to come to the set, they
just can't do any kind of writing. For instance, if Jason Lee's joke
falls flat during the taping of My Name is Earl, creator Greg Garcia
would have to just let it go. The only sticking point that may
interrupt ongoing production is if the Teamsters (i.e., the folks who
drive all those production trucks) live up to their promise to not
cross the picket line, which would force shows to simply go dark. If
that's the case, expect even more new reality shows to debut in the
next few months. "We'll be ready," says one Big Four network executive.
"This is what we get paid to do. We've anticipated this for months,
though honestly I thought they'd resolve it. How stupid can they be?"
As for the impact in daytime, soaps generally have about four weeks
worth of episodes in the can. Once the nets burn though those
originals, expect compilations of classic episodes (Victor and Nikki's
first wedding! Luke and Laura reconcile — for the second time!) News
programs, as well as syndicated shows like The Wheel of Fortune or
Jeopardy, will not be affected. As for cable series, most shows, like
The Shield and Nip/Tuck, were shot months in advance so there will be
no impact — unless the strike is a long one.
"It's emotion transcending logic," opines another network executive.
"Obviously, they're thinking they need to strike. But this isn't like
the striking garment workers. We work alongside these people every day.
A lot of us are friends. We golf together. It's so weird."
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